As most of you know, I pick em’ every week and have for years, I’ve been doing most of my picks on www.bleacherreport.com and you can see Week 5 picks in a nifty slide show format here. Going into last Week (5) I was a solid, if unspectacular 43-19, good for a 69.35% accuracy rate. I finished Week 5 with an 11-3 record….yeah, I even picked the Browns. Imagine that.
This week, I’m looking to duplicate that performance or go 1 better. As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks, I’m picking the straight up winner. So, let’s get to it!
Record:
Record from 2 Weeks Previous (4): 12-2
Record from last Week (5): 11-3
Record coming into Week (6): 54-22 (71.05 percent)
Games, Sunday October 18, 2009:
St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Breakdown:
This game could go anyway really. the jaguars are absolutely deplorable on pass D, currently ranked 30th, and against the run, they’re not much better. They rank in at 18 against the run, but, I think that stat is a bit misleading, as teams just opt to throw against them instead of run.
Conversely, the Rams are just bad all around, and they really don’t have any offensive weapons to counter MJD, Mike Sims-Walker or David Garrard other than Steve Jackson. I’ve said it before, you almost have to feel bad for S-Jax, because quite honestly, if he was even decent team, he might be the best RB in the NFL.
Moving on, I don’t like the matchup much for St. Louis on the defensive side. Sure, they’re serviceable, and I’d love to see the Rams get their 1st win of the year. However, I don’t really see that happening.
VERDICT: I think the Jags get the job done on the legs of MJD. It could be close though.
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Breakdown:
This should prove to be one of the better games this week, andI expect it to be a pretty close one. I think this game is going to come down to what happens on the ground. Brandon Jacobs has been average at best this season, and no one from the Saints has really been as impressive as most though they would.
Drew Brees is an elite talent, andhe’s going to be facing an elite level defense in the Giants, who currently rank #1 against the pass. That could make for a long day against the G-men. Eli has a tough task himself, facing the Saints pass D which is a Top 10 unit. So, basically throwing the ball is going to tough for both squads. yards will be made through the air, but I’d not expect a lot from Colston, Smith or anyone else.
New Orleans is a Top 10 rushing D and the G-men a Top 15, so it’ll be tough there too, however, I think this will be the only way that either one asserts themselves in thisngame. I like the Giants running game a little better, however, with Pierre Thomas healthy and the home crowd factoring in, I like the Saints.
VERDICT: I think the Saints ground game carries them enough to allow Brees to make a nice throw or two. saints win in a close one
Carolina Panthers@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Breakdown:
I don’t have too much to say here, other than Carolina can at least muster a little bit of Offense and a little bit of Defense. Tampa on the other hand cannot. This is a team that seems to be completely lost on Sunday’s. Raheem Morris has been thoroughly outcoached in EVERY game he’s been in, andI don’t see that changing this week with Del Rio on the other sideline.
VERDICT: I like Carolina to get in, get a lead, and then run the clock as much as possible. D-Will has a big day in an easy win.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Breakdown:
This is another mouth watering matchup! Stout D’s, Solid O’s andplenty of characters!
Baltimore is coming in after loosing late at the Hands of the Bengals and one Cedric Benson, who right now has to among the most improved players I’ve ever seen. Ever. He torched the raven d for 120 yards and a score, and opened up the passing game enough for Carson Palmer to do some work. Could it happen again this week?
Minnesota looks like a Top 3 NFC team right now, even with the “greybeard” under center. Adrian Peterson has been fairly average over the last couple of weeks, and they may need to rely heavily on the rocket arm and pocket smarts of ol’ #4. B-More’s D can be thrown on. Philip Rivers lit them up for over 430 yards passing earlier this season, and last week Carson did some damage too. In the end, the Vikes will go as AP and BF go.
VERDICT: I think Adrian Peterson reminds everyone this week why he’s the best RB in the NFL and the Vikes win.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Breakdown:
The Lions, while not the doormat of the NFL anymore, still aren’t a very good team. That said, the Packers are not looking like the team most thought they would either.
Aaron Rodgers has been sacked way too many times this season to allow him to really settle into a rhythm. The running game has been pretty mediocre and this offense has struggled to really assert themselves against anyone.
Fear not Packer faithful, the lions are next!
Here come the Lions to town and they look like the perfect candidate to allow the Green Bay offense to get back on track. Detroit will be beaten in this game….it’s just a matter of by how much…..
VERDICT: Rodgers, Grant, Jennings and everyone else awaken, and Detroit gets manhandled.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Breakdown:
This is the perfect let down game for the Bengals. they just came off of a HUGE win, and the competition this week is, well, lacking. Could they show up not ready to go? maybe they have a hangover from the big game last week?
Nah…don’t buy it. The scenario is true, it IS a letdown type of game, but, I expect marvin Lewis to have them fully prepared and ready to go. They face a Texans D that ranks 26th against the run and an equally sub par 16th against the Pass. Again, I think that stat is misleading. Warner, Fitzy and Boldin, lit Houston up last week.
The difference this week is this; Cincinnati has a bonafide stud at the RB spot, and Houston should be beaten pretty badly by Cedric Benson. And, when they start creeping up to slow him down, Carson’s going over the top. Big days from Benson, Ocho Cinco and Palmer are on tap in this one.
VERDICT: Houston gets beaten pretty easily by Carson and the boys. Who Dey???
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Breakdown:
I love the Browns, and make no bones about it. That’s my squad and I stick by them, so I’m pulling for a Browns win…but let’s be real here. Elvis will walk through my door sooner than the Browns will beat Pittsburgh.
Ben Roethlisberger, for as overrated as he is, has the Browns number. And, that won’t change this week. He and Sontonio Holmes are going to have big days, and I think Mendenhall will be a force too.
VERDICT: Bad week for Browns fans….we loes to our Hated rivals. Steelers win at Home.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
Breakdown:
The Redskins are NOT a good team and sadly, the Chiefs are worse. Yeah, they pressed the Cowboys last week, and it took OT for the Boys to win, but, I think that’s just a case of Dallas being pretty average too.
But, there were some things that I saw from K.C. that were kind of encouraging. They passed the ball decently and they played some D.
That said, I think Washington’s Offense and Defense are superior to that of K.C’s and I think Portis has a strong day!
VERDICT: The Skins win….barely.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Breakdown:
Matt Hasselbeck came back absolutely hotter than a “whore in a pickle patch” as grampa used to say. he absolutely DESTROYED the Jags’ D, throwing for 4….count em’…4 TD passes, andfinally found T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The running game was ok, and definitely helped Hasselbeck get the ball downfield.
Arizona made a HUGE goal line stand in the waning minutes to get the win last week against Houston. Warner, Boldin and Fitzgerald looked great too.
The problem I have is this, I know Seattle can score, and can do it quickly, but, I think the Cards can do is good or better than ANYONE else in the league right now. The passing game is always good with Warner and company, we know that. The question is this; when will the running game emerge?
It better be soon, or Arizona is going to be in major trouble as the year goes on. I’d go AZ., however, the running situation scares me.
VERDICT: Matt Hasselbeck get’s a shot at the worst pass D in the league….he’s going to have a field day! Hawks win.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders
Breakdown:
McNabb, Westbrook, McCoy, Maclin & Jackson = GOOD!
Russell, McFadden, Bush, Heyward-Bey & Higgins = BAD
VERDICT: Eagles win easily because Oakland can’t score against that D.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Breakdown:
Buffalo just played in the most boring game of the 2009 NFL season, and lost. New York just played in one of the best games so far this season and lost….so, there is at least SOMETHING these 2 have in common right…the losing?
Beyond that, there are no similarities to speak of. Trent Edwards looks like a guy who’s regressed exponentially. Terrell Owens is looking for the first train out of Buffalo he can find, and Dick Jauron’s seat is hot….REALLY HOT!
Mark Sanchez has a new toy in Braylon Edwards, who could have had 3 TD’slast week, and the Jet’s Defense is going to be mad after being eaten alive by Miami’s wildcat O…which yeah, I predicted would happen. I digress though. The bottom line is Buffalo can’t compete with the Jets.
VERDICT: Mark “Dirty” Sanchez and the Jets thoroughly dominate the Bills, and shit Lynch and T.O. down completely.
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Breakdown:
Look, Tennessee is 0-5….somewhere most thought they’d never be, and in those 5 games, they haven’t looked particularly good.
New England has struggled as well, as Tom Brady has struggled to regain his Pro-Bowl form. In the end, I think this week, against the #31 ranked pass D, Tom Brady and Randy Moss find their groove again, and put on a show.
VERDICT: New England beats Tennessee at home, and the Titans fall to 0-6…..ouch.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Breakdown:
Last week, I said the falcons would dominate the 49ers, and they did. The bye week was a big assist for them and gave them 2 weeks to game plan for the 49ers and rest and heal up. they used that couple of weeks to their advantage.
This week, the Bears are coming off the bye, and could do the same thing. Notice I said COULD and not WOULD? Reason? The Bears are NOT that good of a team. they have issues with the Running game, and Jay Cutler is being outperformed by the guy they traded away, except statistically. The D lost their heart and soul in Urlacher. Don’t think that hurts, look at Pittsburgh since Polamalu has been out…
I think Matt Ryan is one of the best young QB’s I’ve seen in the last 7-8 years, and he’s absolutely pivotal to his teams success. Mike Turner can run on anyone, and Roddy White & Tony Gonzales are both safety blankets for Ryan. They get it done at home.
VERDICT: The Falcons are the next elite team in the NFC, and they best Chicago this week.
Monday Night Football:
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Breakdown:
The Chargers are a wreck right now on the defensive side of the ball, andeven on the offensive side, the running game has looked pathetic….even with LT. Philip Rivers, Vince Jackson and Antonio Gates have been stellar this season, and have proven they’ll perform against anyone.
On the other side, they have the Broncos D, who’s currently ranked 5th against the Pass, 6th againt the Run and 2nd in Total D. They’re as stout as they come, there’s no questioning that. Offensively though, they’ve been ok, and are averaging well below the 23.6 ppgaverage of the rest of the league at 18.5. the Chargers can put up points, andthey can do it with relative ease. Will it be this game?
Another factor here is the fact that it’s a rivalry game, andbeyond that, it’s a game that San Diego MUST have if they hope to stay alive at all. that’s why I think the Broncos could taste defeat for the first time this week. Denver, traditionally, is pretty average at S.D., and while I think they’ll not be average, I don’t know that they’ll do enough offensively to win the game.
VERDICT: San Diego gets a HUGE win at home and beats the mighty Broncos.
So, there you have it folks. Best of luck in your fantasy matchups and we’ll see ya next week!
